Revista Biomédica Revisada Por Pares
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Palabras clave: coronavirus, epidemiology, mathematical model, public health
The COVID-19 pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) has generated a wide-ranging debate regarding epidemiological forecasts and the global implications. With the data obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health (MINSAL), a prospective study was carried out using the generalized SEIR model to estimate the course of COVID-19 in Chile. Three scenarios were estimated: Scenario 1 with official MINSAL data; scenario 2 with official MINSAL data and recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health; and scenario 3 with official MINSAL data, recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health, and without considering deaths in the total recovered. There are considerable differences between scenario 1 compared to 2 and 3 in the number of deaths, active patients, and duration of the disease. Scenario 3, considered the most adverse, estimates a total of 11,000 infected people, 1,151 deaths, and that the peak of the disease will occur in the first days of May. We concluded that the concept of “recovered” may be decisive for the epidemiological forecasts of COVID-19 in Chile.
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The COVID-19 pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) has generated a wide-ranging debate regarding epidemiological forecasts and the global implications. With the data obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health (MINSAL), a prospective study was carried out using the generalized SEIR model to estimate the course of COVID-19 in Chile. Three scenarios were estimated: Scenario 1 with official MINSAL data; scenario 2 with official MINSAL data and recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health; and scenario 3 with official MINSAL data, recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health, and without considering deaths in the total recovered. There are considerable differences between scenario 1 compared to 2 and 3 in the number of deaths, active patients, and duration of the disease. Scenario 3, considered the most adverse, estimates a total of 11,000 infected people, 1,151 deaths, and that the peak of the disease will occur in the first days of May. We concluded that the concept of “recovered” may be decisive for the epidemiological forecasts of COVID-19 in Chile.
Autores:
Camilo Guerrero-Nancuante[1], Ronald Manríquez P[2]
Citación: Guerrero-Nancuante C, Manríquez P R. An epidemiological forecast of COVID-19 in Chile based on the generalized SEIR model and the concept of recovered. Medwave 2020;20(4):e7898 doi: 10.5867/medwave.2020.04.7898
Fecha de envío: 14/4/2020
Fecha de aceptación: 30/4/2020
Fecha de publicación: 15/5/2020
Origen: No solicitado
Tipo de revisión: Con revisión por pares externa, por tres árbitros a doble ciego
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